Cry for Argentina
Argentina’s peso has fallen massively vs. the dollar since last year. Tight monetary policy has been insufficient to arrest inflation, currently rising at 55% YoY. The main issue driving the risk off move in Argentina is the fact that the pro-reform President Macri is losing ground in polls ahead of October elections to the resurgent former President Kristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who oversaw the deterioration of Argentina’s economy since 2007. The problem for President Macri is that additional measures to contain inflation will likely spur a near term deterioration in the economy, increase economic hardships and further boost Kirchner’s popularity.
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