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An upside-down debate

The Fed surprised markets this week, with sentiment far more dovish than investors had expected. To some, this suggests that the credit cycle still has further to go. Others are weary of the Fed’s shift, believing that the Fed sees weaker economic conditions ahead. If global bond yields are any indication, the latter group is […]

A recession indicator?

Rising wage costs, and a new bill progressing through Congress that will increase Federal minimum wages are causing concerns for small businesses. Business owners mentioning labor costs as their greatest problem just hit an all-time high. Historically, when NFIB surveys for cost of labor as the single most important problem for small businesses reaches and […]

Going South

In 2018, Hong Kong stocks started falling in June, three months before the global equity rout began. This was primarily driven by large capital outflows in response to a more hawkish Fed coupled with weaker domestic growth (PMIs fell to 48). The equity market correction that followed lasted until the end of the year. However, […]

A global growth pick-up ahead?

Copper prices and global manufacturing PMIs have moved in tandem over the past several years. Trade disputes between the U.S. and China (the world’s largest copper consumer) and the slowdown in global economic growth have weighed on PMIs and copper prices. However, recently, the two have been diverging: global growth (and PMIs) continues to slow, […]