2017

Cannabis goes legit, food fights and other themes investors will be talking about in 2018
Financial Post, December 29, 2017

“Presently, we see a nascent uptick in Canadian exports, which should bode well for Canadian industrials and materials sectors,” strategists at Pavilion Global Markets said in a recent report. “We think that investors will become more interested in Canadian value stocks as they search for some of the forgotten, less pricey markets, and as U.S. economic growth continues to solidify,” Pavilion said.


Loonie outlook for 2018 solid despite looming U.S. and domestic risks
Financial Post, December 26, 2017

Pavilion Global Markets strategists also noted the Canadian dollar has been trading based on domestic fundamentals, since they are the primary driver of future BoC rate decisions.


The Greenback Is Starting to Look a Bit Like a Petrocurrency
Bloomberg Quint, November 7, 2017

A shift in America’s status from oil consumer to major producer has the potential to upend global capital flows, Pavilion Global Markets Ltd said in July.


A Missing Piece of the Global Growth Jigsaw Starts to Fall Into Place
Bloomberg, October 29, 2017

For investors, the “green shoots” of greater business spending should prompt a better performance from U.S. industrial stocks and higher yields on 10-year Treasury notes, analysts at Pavilion Global Markets told clients in a recent report.


Italy’s fourth-biggest bank returns to the stockmarket
The Economist, October 26,2017

Things may be looking up. Pavilion, an investment services firm, suggests that new regulation and accounting rules will make life harder for Italian banks dealing with bad loans, but cyclical factors will offset this.


Why you should remember Black Monday on its 30th anniversary
The Windsor Star, October 18, 2017

Disinflationary pressures have prompted the Fed to continually lower its expectations for the longer-term Fed funds rate, but Pavilion Global Markets believes U.S. inflation has begun a cyclical recovery that will push market pricing closer to a Fed funds rate of 2.5 per cent during the next two years.


Biotech: What’s Not To Like? Well…
Barron’s, September 1, 2017

Pavilion writes that biotechs, like other growth stocks, tend to outperform in disinflationary times, but the firm expects that we will reach a turning point on expected inflation at last, which could be a headwind for the group.


Trillion-Dollar Earnings Yield Keeping S&P 500 Out of Fed Reach
Bloomberg Markets, August 25, 2017

Adding that balance-sheet unwind to the equation could pose a greater threat to stocks than the initial string of rate hikes, according to Alex Bellefleur, head of global macro research and strategy for Pavilion Global Markets Ltd in Montreal.


Today’s Selloff Is Testing One of 2017’s Top Stock Trades
Bloomberg Markets, August 10, 2017

“In an environment like today where people are shedding risk, they probably want to sell the stuff they own the most, and if they’re overweight high-flying growth shares that’s what they’ll dump,” said Alex Bellefleur, head of global macro research and strategy at Pavilion Global Markets in Montreal.


What U.S. Growth-Stock Gains Have to Do With Bonds’ Calm
Bloomberg Radio, August 9, 2017

Investors’ preference for U.S. growth stocks is as telling an indicator of “market complacency” as a lack of volatility in bonds, according to Pavilion Global Markets.


Canada’s economy at 150: How we shook off the oil shock
The Globe and Mail, July 4, 2017

“Commodity prices are low compared to their long-term trend and versus financial assets. However, they can stay low for years – historically, over five years – before reverting to trend,” says analyst Antoine Naly of Pavilion Global Markets in Montreal.


S&P 500 Profit Generators Under Threat From Peak Inflation
Bloomberg, June 20, 2017

“The rolling over of inflation expectations and commodity prices presents unique risks for sectors that were large contributors to better earnings expectations,” said Alex Bellefleur, head of global macro research and strategy at Pavilion Global Markets Ltd. in Montreal. “The risk is that markets begin to reassess the forward earnings picture and turn a little less optimistic.”


Do tax cuts automatically lead to economic growth?
MarketPlace, June 6, 2017

But what if investors and companies don’t want to invest in more machines and factories? Aidan Garrib, a macro strategist with Pavilion Global Markets in Montreal, said that in the past, corporate tax cuts have been used to benefit shareholders. “To pay dividends and issue share buybacks,” Garrib said.


Tech Bubble Talk Is a Dot-Com Flashback
Bloomberg, June 1, 2017

And while investors aren’t paying stratospheric prices as they did in the late ’90s dot-com bubble, enterprise values of a broad collection of tech companies relative to their profits are higher than they have been since early 2004, Pavilion Global Markets calculated last week.


Short Sellers Resist Covering as S&P 500 Retakes Record in Week
Bloomberg, May 26, 2017

“The market appears relatively cautious by historical standards,” Pavilion Global Markets Ltd. strategists led by Alex Bellefleur wrote in a note. “The bullish view is that some of these shorts will have to be covered at some point, lengthening the rally.”


Five things you should know before you start your work day on May 19
The Financial Post, May 19, 2017

A slump in oil prices has hurt demand for property in Alberta, the country’s big cities are seeing rents fall far behind price gains, which dents revenue, and online shopping has shrunk traffic at malls. Finally, in times of broad market stress, REITS behave more like stocks rather than safer bonds, according to Pavilion Global Markets Ltd.


Greek, Portuguese Bonds Lead Resurgence of Europe’s Periphery
Washington Post, May 18, 2017

The balance of risks points to further upside for Greek debt in the next few months, with gradual economic improvements and the potential for inclusion of its bonds in the ECB program, according to Pavilion Global Markets Ltd.


S&P 500 Limps to Record While ETF Investors Turn Sour on Stocks
Bloomberg, May 5, 2017

“People have shifted so quickly into bonds, and they’re probably doing it by selling equities,” Alex Bellefleur, head of global macro research and strategy at Pavilion Global Markets in Montreal, said by phone. “Maybe people are looking at protection, given stocks are at all-time highs.”


Cracks are emerging’ in one of the riskiest parts of the market
Business Insider, May 5, 2017

These rising yields are widening the gap between high yield and comparable bonds. “Cracks are emerging in the high yield credit space that have the potential to blow out spreads in similar fashion to what occurred in 2014,” Pavilion Global Markets said in a note on Friday.


Will Home Capital Dent Canada’s ‘Boring-but-Stable’ Reputation?
Bloomberg News, May 2, 2017

“Canada’s reputation as a boring-but-stable financial system took a bit of a hit this week,” Alex Bellefleur, head of global macro research and strategy at Pavilion Global Markets Ltd. in Montreal, wrote in a note Friday. He predicts lending will slow across the industry, hurting cash flow into housing, and weakening inflation and the Canadian dollar.


S&P 500 Profit Generators Under Threat From Peak Inflation
Bloomberg, April 21, 2017

“The rolling over of inflation expectations and commodity prices presents unique risks for sectors that were large contributors to better earnings expectations,” said Alex Bellefleur, head of global macro research and strategy at Pavilion Global Markets Ltd. in Montreal. “The risk is that markets begin to reassess the forward earnings picture and turn a little less optimistic.”


Could Gulf States Be Forced To Devalue Their Currencies Against The Dollar?
Forbes, March 24, 2017

Fears of a devaluation first emerged in early 2016. Although the authorities in Riyadh and elsewhere have done their best to quash such speculation, the idea is again being discussed among some analysts, with Pavilion Global Markets suggesting that the Saudi authorities “will be forced to either increase interest rates or devalue the currency”.


Will Saudis Devalue Currency With Oil At $50?
Barron’s, March 23, 2017

OPEC countries depend on oil revenue, but they have been forced to cut production to keep prices near $50 per barrel, and the chief among them — Saudi Arabia — could be the oil markets’ biggest loser, Pavilion Global Markets writes today.


Gold Hedge vs Dollar: Chart Of The Day
Barron’s, February 24, 2017

The Montreal-based analysts at independent research house Pavilion Global Markets think that gold isn’t getting enough attention in the post-election rally even as members of the new administration talk down the strength of the dollar.


Indonesia & Commodities: The ‘Resilient’ Emerging Market
Barron’s, February 10, 2017

With Indonesian real rates (about 2%) not as high as those of other EMs, we think that Indonesian bonds remain relatively unattractive. We would rather look into equities rather than bonds to benefit from the country’s still-strong domestic fundamentals and rebounding PMIs…”


Junk May Slam Into $1 Trillion Wall as Maturities Hit Record
The Washington Post, February 8, 2017

Tighter monetary policy, higher volatility, elevated valuations and unfavorable changes to U.S. tax law could all contribute to pressure on spreads and underperformance in the sector, according to a separate report from Pavilion Global Markets, the Montreal-based trading and research firm.


How to invest if you think Donald Trump will be good for the U.S. economy
Canadian Business, January 18, 2017

While Aidan Garrib, global macro strategist for Pavilion Global Markets in Montreal, likewise doubts the Trump administration’s ability to effect his plans in the time frame that investors’ widely expect, one area he thinks will get some traction is financial industry deregulation.


Was Emerging Markets’ Trump Selloff Overdone?
Barron’s, January 17, 2017

Trump’s election briefly curtailed markets’ interest in EM assets late last year. As markets get a clearer picture of the outlook for the U.S. economy, we see them rotating back into EM assets … we think there is an interesting entry point into EM U.S.-dollar bonds and into more cyclical EM equity sectors …