Insights

Easing in India

April 5, 2019

The RBI came out yesterday with its second consecutive rate cut as economic growth starts to cool amid the ongoing general elections. The political desire for stimulus is understandable in the investor community, especially at a time when the rupee has stabilized and inflation is low. While we expect some rupee weakness to return, the […]

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Stay positive?

April 5, 2019

Despite a strongly rebounding U.S. equity market this year, Tuesday’s U.S. consumer confidence print came in much worse than expected, missing the mark by the widest margin since 2015. The survey data tends to follow the equity market, which makes this divergence another sign of weakening U.S. consumption growth. Unless more is done by policy […]

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An upside-down debate

April 5, 2019

The Fed surprised markets this week, with sentiment far more dovish than investors had expected. To some, this suggests that the credit cycle still has further to go. Others are weary of the Fed’s shift, believing that the Fed sees weaker economic conditions ahead. If global bond yields are any indication, the latter group is […]

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A recession indicator?

March 21, 2019

Rising wage costs, and a new bill progressing through Congress that will increase Federal minimum wages are causing concerns for small businesses. Business owners mentioning labor costs as their greatest problem just hit an all-time high. Historically, when NFIB surveys for cost of labor as the single most important problem for small businesses reaches and […]

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