Insights

A victim of its own strength

September 3, 2019

The Swiss National Bank’s sight deposits—that is, the amount of cash commercial banks leave with the SNB—has jumped sharply since last month. Typically, a rise in sight deposits suggests that the SNB is intervening in currency markets to weaken the franc. It clearly isn’t working. The Swiss franc has rallied relentlessly vs. the euro This […]

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Will autos be the first crack in credit?

August 20, 2019

Delinquencies (90+ days) in auto loans and leases continue to rise, as they approach all-time highs. Outstanding auto loan balances were up almost 5% in Q2, and are fast approaching a record USD 1.3tn. What is most notable is the divergence between delinquencies and the unemployment rate. One of the reasons for this is 50% […]

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Manipulator?

August 12, 2019

Is China a currency manipulator? While there is little doubt that the recent RMB depreciation occurred without PBOC approval, it isn’t clear China meets the three criteria to be considered a manipulator. China does run a significant bilateral trade surplus with America, but the other two points are less clear cut. Is China’s current account […]

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Checkup with Doctor Copper

August 12, 2019

Copper prices are fast approaching their 2017 and 2018 lows and risk breaching these technical support levels, as risk sentiment sours. President Trump’s additional tariff announcement last week spooked risk assets, with notable weakness in the RMB. The PBOC has signaled more monetary policy easing is coming, which could be supportive of copper prices. However, […]

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